We’re currently 2/3rd of the way through the season with only 9 rounds left to play. We are due to play every team bar Brisbane, and playing Adelaide twice in our run home.
Being in a 6 team tussle for the 4 remaining playoff spots (assuming Sydney FC and Melbourne Victory take 1st and 2nd), it means that we will have a few “6 point games”.
Melbourne City sit in 4th on 26 points, just 5 ahead of us.
Perth Glory are in 5th on 24 points, only 1 win in front of us. Assuming all other results are even a win over the team in the west would mean we leapfrog them into 5th.
Newcastle are in 7th and only 1 point behind us. Getting another win over them will put a 4 point buffer, assuming all other results are the same.
Phoenix are lagging behind in the pack in 8th and on 19 points. Again a win over the Nix will give us enough of a buffer.
As we can see the big games to even make the finals are beating Newcastle and Phoenix, both of whom are directly behind us. Wins over CCM and Adelaide are also a must to ensure we remain in the race for the finals.
If we wish to gain positions in the finals, the games against Perth Glory and Melbourne City are the most important, especially if we want 4th position and home field advantage in the final. Also a win from 4th could see us play Sydney FC in what would be a blockbuster semi-final derby, and surely the FFA’s wet dream.
If we have a look at where we could potentially finish, we are on 21 points with a maximum of 27 points available to us. In previous years anywhere from 32 to as high 41 points to make the finals last year. So if we were to win every game left we would finish on 48 points and inside the top 3.
Being realistic we could probably win 6 games against Adelaide, Wellington, Newcastle, Perth and Central Coast, drawing against Sydney and City and losing the game against Victory.
This would give us 20 points landing us on 41, which would be more than enough to qualify for the finals, and be inside the top 4.
However of course this isn’t factoring the toll that the ACL campaign may have on us. All that us fans can do now is to turn up to our remaining home games, and sing loud and proud!